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Developments:
A fascinating article by Malcolm Gladwell in the New Yorker relates how the recent economic booms experienced by Ireland and East Asia were driven by a "demographic dividend".
As my associate David Bloom explains in the article, demographic dividends occur when the number of people of working-age in a country rises sharply - because of baby booms or reductions in fertility - compared to the dependent population of children and the elderly. This means that resources that have previously been spent on child care, health care and pensions are freed up for productive economic activity.
In contrast to East Asia, Africa still has a high proportion of dependents to workers. As Gladwell observes, this would "frustrate and complicate economic development anywhere". Africa needs to get its birth rate down if it is to achieve similarly favourable demographic conditions, but it also needs a job climate that can absorb a swollen workforce.
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